trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +103.0% | +83.7% | 50% | 50% | +72.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +256.5% | +222.5% | 40% | 40% | +52.3% |
| all | 5 | +256.5% | +222.5% | 40% | 40% | +52.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +222.5% | 40% | +52.3% |
| 10% | +191.7% | 40% | +37.7% |
| 15% | +163.5% | 40% | +24.4% |
| 20% | +137.6% | 40% | +12.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 15¢ | $566 | $409 | −$157 (-28%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $148 | $150 | +$2 (+2%) |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $36 | $4 | −$32 (-88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 26 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | May 26 | $80 | +$245 | +306% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 14 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 13 | $471 | −$83 | -18% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 11 | $40 | +$478 | +1194% |