Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d7…cacb crypto 1150 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$758 (-3%) realized −$758 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%989W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$16
14 days−$90
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$722
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 221 -3.3% -12.5% 94% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 1150 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 16% -12.0%
all 1150 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 16% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 16% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 5% -20.4%
15% -27.8% 2% -28.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses989 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1150 / 1150
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1150 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $51 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records