Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1dc…a887 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2
other 12% −$1
politics 10% −$1
sports 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 5% -9.4%
all 42 -2.9% -12.1% 24% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage257d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $25 −$1 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $53 −$3 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $155 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $65 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 −$1 -19%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $43 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $47 +$6 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 06 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -74%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Nov 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025? Oct 26 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 25 $18 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $5 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $36 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $50 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $53 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $55 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 40h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $62 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $62 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $42 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $9 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records