Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1dc…1496
world · 71 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage530d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$17
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 56¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-8%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 43¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $20 +$16 +79%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $44 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $84 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $122 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $86 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $53 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$14
other 24% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 14% −$12
economics 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $52 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $23 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $23 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $23 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.9% +8.5% 75% 25% -0.3%
≤30d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 64 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 2% -8.9%
all 67 -3.3% -12.6% 31% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 1% -9.3%
10% -20.9% 1% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.87 · official $47.73 · 292 history records