Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1dd…c4c9 sports 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$200 (-4%) realized −$199 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%158W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$52
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$15
sports 46% −$14
crypto 4% −$171
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -44.1% -49.4% 17% 17% -22.8%
≤30d 56 -11.4% -19.9% 45% 45% -32.1%
≤90d 261 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 47% -16.7%
all 310 +1.6% -8.0% 51% 48% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 48% -12.6%
10% -16.8% 46% -21.0%
15% -24.9% 44% -28.6%
20% -32.2% 41% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses158 / 152
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)310 / 311
History coverage147d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $50 +$49 +97%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $53 −$51 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2 +$3 +109%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 05 $18 $0 -2%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $5 +$4 +73%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $11 +$19 +180%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $45 +$45 +101%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $21 −$15 -70%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4 +$3 +72%
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score May 29 $2 +$2 +109%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saint-Etienne 0 - 0 Nice? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $3 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 +$1 +62%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $1 $0 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 26 $1 +$1 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$2 +97%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $132 −$132 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $68 +$42 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $4 −$2 -42%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $8 +$22 +270%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 24 $16 +$14 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $75 −$75 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 23 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $99 2m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 50¢ $50 1h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY No 24¢ $53 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $11 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $1 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $1 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $0 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $5 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete BUY Yes 83¢ $6 10d
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 15d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes $0 15d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $65 16d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 16d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 16d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 16d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 16d
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 16d
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 16d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 16d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 16d
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 787 history records