Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1df…8a9c sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+26%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$63
other 48% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 33% +22.9%
≤30d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 33% +22.9%
≤90d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 33% +22.9%
all 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 33% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 33% +22.9%
10% -24.1% 33% +11.2%
15% -31.5% 33% +0.4%
20% -38.2% 33% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$39 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $119 −$116 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $82 +$194 +238%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $38 −$21 -56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $8 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 35h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 36h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $5 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $6 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $4 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 38h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $20 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $71 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.91 · official $207.13 (match) · 29 history records