Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1df…39ff other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
other 28% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 9% +$14
crypto 8% $0
weather 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 0% -11.3%
all 40 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -8.4%
10% -21.0% 5% -17.2%
15% -28.7% 5% -25.2%
20% -35.7% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage487d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $56 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $36 −$5 -13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $21 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $3 $0 +7%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $21 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Maryland win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $21 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $22 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $20 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $23 $0 +1%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 06 $14 +$9 +67%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Mar 04 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $30 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $30 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $34 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $34 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $14 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $14 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $26 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $6 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $22 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $14 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.23 · official $34.23 (match) · 114 history records