Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1e2…8b37 world 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$14
other 22% +$1
sports 14% +$70
crypto 9% +$1
weather 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 8% -12.1%
≤90d 12 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 8% -12.1%
all 25 +17.9% +6.7% 68% 12% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 12% -3.1%
10% -3.5% 12% -12.4%
15% -12.8% 8% -20.8%
20% -21.4% 8% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage490d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $22 −$10 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 +$1 +29%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $48 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $53 −$5 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on March 11? Mar 12 $80 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 11 $79 +$1 +1%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 06 $17 +$62 +354%
George Washington vs. Fordham Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Marshall vs. Old Dominion Mar 04 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 19m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 19m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 12h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $7 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $7 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records