Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1e3…b6d0 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-27%) realized −$269 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day95.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -17.8% -25.6% 17% 5% -32.6%
≤30d 64 -17.8% -25.6% 17% 5% -32.6%
≤90d 64 -17.8% -25.6% 17% 5% -32.6%
all 64 -17.8% -25.6% 17% 5% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 5% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 5% -39.0%
15% -39.2% 3% -44.9%
20% -45.2% 3% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 53
Open positions56
Markets (closed)64 / 120
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day95.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ibrahim Sangaré score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 58¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+57%)
Will Lisandro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 67¢ $18 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 48¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will Romelu Lukaku win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-39%)
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-73%)
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 39¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Raphinha win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $12 $3 −$8 (-72%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 6¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-83%)
Will Raphinha win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-82%)
Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-82%)
Will Ferran Torres win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 5¢ $11 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Cody Gakpo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-65%)
Will Teun Koopmeiners score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+208%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $14 $2 −$11 (-85%)
Will Bukayo Saka win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-72%)
Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 26¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Declan Rice win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-88%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Declan Rice win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-87%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Nick Woltemade win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-84%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -83%
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $49 −$12 -24%
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 $0 -2%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$8 -59%
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -40%
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -37%
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Pedro Neto score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -22%
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -77%
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Ferran Torres win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$14 -87%
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Bukayo Saka win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -90%
Will Nick Woltemade win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$12 -90%
Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Florian Wirtz win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 53m
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 53m
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 53m
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $11 54m
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $14 55m
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $10 56m
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 56m
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $6 57m
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 57m
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 57m
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 1h
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $8 1h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 1h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $7 1h
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $5 1h
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Pedro Neto score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 42¢ $8 1h
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 1h
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 32¢ $1 1h
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 1h
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 1h
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 1h
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.40 · official $124.06 · 481 history records