Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1e5…67e2 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-43%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.8% -44.6% 12% 12% -53.9%
≤30d 8 -38.8% -44.6% 12% 12% -53.9%
≤90d 8 -38.8% -44.6% 12% 12% -53.9%
all 8 -38.8% -44.6% 12% 12% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 12% -53.9%
10% -49.9% 12% -58.3%
15% -54.7% 12% -62.3%
20% -59.2% 12% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $43 +$33 +78%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $38 −$10 -27%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$18 -58%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -65%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -13%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$8 -26%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 28¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $23 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records