Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1e7…d5cb sports 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-3%) realized −$68 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$41
14 days+$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$59
politics 20% −$7
world 12% +$29
other 11% −$25
finance 1% −$15
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +26.9% +14.8% 42% 42% +2.3%
≤30d 93 +9.0% -1.3% 38% 37% -10.7%
≤90d 95 +6.8% -3.4% 37% 36% -14.5%
all 122 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 34% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 34% -12.1%
10% -14.7% 30% -20.5%
15% -23.0% 25% -28.2%
20% -30.5% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 76
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)122 / 146
History coverage541d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 75¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 51¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 45¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? No 79¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 42¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +39%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14 +$41 +297%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $14 −$4 -29%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +82%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$3 +56%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$7 +206%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -54%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $4 +$6 +155%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$13 +208%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$3 +53%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$15 +1475%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +249%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 31m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $4 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 13h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 13h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $2 17h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $3 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $2 22h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $0 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 6¢ $1 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $1 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $2 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 35¢ $2 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.88 · official $105.86 (match) · 461 history records