Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa1ea…b198 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-8%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%164W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$21
14 days−$22
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$57
other 24% −$54
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 30% -19.8%
≤30d 88 -17.9% -25.7% 32% 27% -24.3%
≤90d 383 -12.6% -20.9% 30% 25% -23.8%
all 445 -8.2% -17.0% 37% 31% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 31% -19.2%
10% -24.9% 24% -26.9%
15% -32.2% 21% -34.0%
20% -38.8% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses164 / 281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)445 / 445
History coverage101d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -59%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -52%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -50%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -54%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +159%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -86%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +80%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +166%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 14h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1039 history records