Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1ee…0267 sports 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,064 (-9%) realized −$5,914 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%247W / 284L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$471est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$799
14 days−$654
30 days−$2,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$5,525
other 27% −$920
world 2% −$101
crypto 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.5% +2.7% 64% 60% +6.1%
≤30d 92 -13.6% -21.9% 45% 43% -24.7%
≤90d 401 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 42% -23.3%
all 531 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 45% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -18.3%
10% -26.3% 42% -26.1%
15% -33.4% 39% -33.2%
20% -39.9% 32% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$94 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$5,914
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses247 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions2
Markets (closed)531 / 533
History coverage199d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 531 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Subtop De France 40¢ 44¢ $69 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A OlyBet SB 50¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$26 +60%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $249 −$247 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $249 +$182 +73%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $251 +$243 +97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $236 +$266 +112%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $156 −$13 -9%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $190 −$188 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $218 −$139 -64%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $264 +$202 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$8 +29%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $172 −$144 -84%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $177 +$46 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$42 +84%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne Jun 26 $55 +$30 +54%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 25 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $185 +$8 +4%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $58 +$39 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $241 −$96 -40%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $243 +$173 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $298 +$163 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $166 +$132 +79%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $238 +$188 +79%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $454 +$293 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $200 −$197 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $239 −$139 -58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $256 −$253 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $184 +$73 +40%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $101 +$83 +82%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $208 −$99 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $39 +$63 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$21 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$9 +107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $546 −$138 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $379 −$376 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $222 +$214 +96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $128 +$95 +74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $259 −$132 -51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $147 +$113 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $299 −$294 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $247 −$244 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $245 −$242 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $142 +$100 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $177 +$82 +46%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $77 −$76 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$36 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 40¢ $70 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $44 11m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 50¢ $158 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 60¢ $249 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $249 37h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America SELL NRG Academy 100¢ $495 38h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 50¢ $251 40h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL MIBR Academy 97¢ $502 40h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 45¢ $236 42h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 57¢ $143 42h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $156 43h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 54¢ $190 44h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Walczaki 15¢ $79 44h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 40¢ $218 46h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $467 46h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $264 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament SELL Rune Eaters 11¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament SELL Rune Eaters 11¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 64¢ $172 2d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 100¢ $173 2d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 53¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne SELL The Huns Esports 34¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY The Huns Esports 55¢ $85 2d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 97¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.72 · official $67.86 · 1118 history records