Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f1…6c06 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-4%) realized −$49 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$52
other 19% −$2
crypto 14% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 47% -16.1%
≤30d 34 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 47% -16.1%
≤90d 34 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 47% -16.1%
all 34 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 47% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 47% -16.1%
10% -17.0% 47% -24.2%
15% -25.1% 47% -31.5%
20% -32.4% 38% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 48
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$28 +114%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $21 +$2 +7%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$16 +62%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$27 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Aust Jun 23 $26 +$58 +229%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +38%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $85 +$43 +51%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 +$43 +94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 11m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 16m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 21m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $10 12h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 17h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $25 17h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 26¢ $17 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 24¢ $10 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 24¢ $25 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 25¢ $22 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $25 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $25 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AND Will P BUY 47¢ $25 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 62¢ $25 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $25 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Aust BUY 30¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.62 · official $168.62 (match) · 85 history records