Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1f2…ebf4
crypto · 1598 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1052 / 551
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1603 / 1598
History coverage40d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1603 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$47
14 days−$61
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 73¢ 94¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 43¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$44
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 29% -14.8%
≤30d 1442 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 60% -10.6%
≤90d 1603 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 60% -10.3%
all 1603 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 60% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 60% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 49% -18.9%
15% -28.1% 38% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 24% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.68 (match) · 3500 history records