Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa1f3…d99c sports 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 164d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$149,979 (-10%) realized −$152,681 · open +$2,702
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%306W / 449L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,285per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$1,109est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 164d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$141,195
other 22% −$2,909
world 1% +$2,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -77.8% -79.9% 11% 11% -52.6%
≤30d 114 -77.8% -79.9% 11% 11% -52.6%
≤90d 223 -44.3% -49.6% 28% 27% -42.3%
all 755 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 40% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 40% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 40% -33.9%
15% -39.1% 40% -40.3%
20% -45.1% 40% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$3,020) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,104 vs −$2,148 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$4,742
Realized−$152,681
Unrealized+$2,702
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses306 / 449
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)755 / 662
History coverage164d ⚠
Avg bet$2,285
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 755 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 100¢ $2,040 $4,742 +$2,702 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 426 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Jun 16 $688 −$688 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 16 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Jun 16 $6,800 −$6,800 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07? Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Nets: O/U 220.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-8.5) Jun 16 $1,603 −$1,603 -100%
Spread: Newcastle (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5 Jun 16 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-14? Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jun 16 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 16 $800 −$800 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-7.5) Jun 16 $800 −$800 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5) Jun 16 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-26? Jun 16 $910 −$910 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22? Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 16 $7,453 −$7,453 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Jun 16 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Jun 16 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 16 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 16 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
RU Saint-Gilloise vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03? Jun 16 $640 −$640 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24? Jun 16 $13,348 −$13,348 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 16 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-15.5) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 224.5 Jun 16 $5,503 −$5,503 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5 Jun 16 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $145 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $2,019 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $2,020 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $509 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2,035 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $509 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $13 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $325 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $44 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $9 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $52 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,741.81 · official $4,720.47 (match) · 3500 history records