Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa1f3…4d65 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$244 (+26%) realized +$245 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$235
14 days+$235
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$162
sports 48% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +30.3% +17.8% 73% 73% +23.6%
≤30d 15 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 67% +15.5%
≤90d 15 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 67% +15.5%
all 15 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 67% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 67% +15.5%
10% +4.1% 67% +4.5%
15% -6.0% 67% -5.6%
20% -15.2% 60% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$38 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$33 +65%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$40 +197%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $192 +$119 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $136 +$62 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $85 +$51 +59%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $18 −$9 -49%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$76 -75%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 +$37 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 9h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 3¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $192 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $136 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $50 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $35 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $26 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 86¢ $8 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 54¢ $10 7d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.81 · official $78.82 (match) · 32 history records