Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f9…1d2f world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+31%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$85
world 17% +$1
crypto 11% −$21
finance 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% +52.4%
≤30d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% +52.4%
≤90d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% +52.4%
all 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% +52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 33% +52.4%
10% -44.0% 33% +37.8%
15% -49.4% 33% +24.5%
20% -54.4% 33% +12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +66% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$10 · ×8.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.14 per $1 lost it wins $4.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $81 +$86 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.96 · official $98.96 (match) · 12 history records