Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1fa…6242 crypto 1144 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,008 (-2%) realized −$1,008 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%798W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day58.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$844
14 days−$559
30 days−$5,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -19.6% -27.3% 53% 53% -28.2%
≤30d 682 -15.2% -23.2% 58% 56% -23.9%
≤90d 1144 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 66% -13.4%
all 1144 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 66% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 66% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 50% -21.7%
15% -28.2% 30% -29.3%
20% -35.3% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$48 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,008
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses798 / 346
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1144 / 1144
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day58.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1144 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $123 −$121 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $136 +$31 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$35 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $65 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $59 +$20 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$30 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $92 −$91 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$33 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $114 +$58 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $124 +$73 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $139 −$136 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$88 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$51 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$70 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$61 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$65 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$136 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$53 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$57 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $83 +$52 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $60 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $49 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $62 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $61 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $74 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $62 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $56 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $65 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $71 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records