Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1fd…016b
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$2 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage586d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 37% +$8
sports 18% −$5
economics 18% −$5
crypto 18% $0
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bucks vs. Cavaliers BUY Bucks 29¢ $5 586d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 586d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $5 586d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 586d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 -28.9% -35.6% 50% 25% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -15.5%
10% -41.8% 25% -23.6%
15% -47.4% 25% -31.0%
20% -52.6% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 11 history records