Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa200…27b0
weather · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,295 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$769 · open −$111
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,474
Realized+$769
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses70 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)145 / 153
History coverage22d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day146.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$1,298
14 days−$67
30 days+$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 61¢ 95¢ $244 $378 +$134 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 83¢ 99¢ $248 $297 +$49 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 52¢ 97¢ $155 $291 +$136 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 40¢ 96¢ $97 $230 +$133 (+137%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 94¢ $93 $206 +$114 (+123%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 15¢ 6¢ $58 $21 −$37 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $36 $19 −$17 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 13¢ 5¢ $48 $19 −$29 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $35 $12 −$24 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$12 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 −$11 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $331 −$31 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $234 −$76 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $105 +$105 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $624 −$89 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $285 +$161 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$20 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $181 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $455 −$155 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 −$31 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $256 +$42 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $140 −$7 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $93 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $273 +$34 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $313 +$33 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $330 −$36 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $168 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $267 +$32 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $75 +$36 +48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $297 −$11 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $164 +$35 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $258 +$141 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $498 −$127 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $185 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $564 −$235 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $188 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 09 $320 −$21 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 09 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 09 $223 −$24 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 09 $101 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 09 $355 −$56 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 09 $213 −$14 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? Jun 09 $107 −$18 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 09 $306 +$128 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $19 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $86 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $98 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -28.1% -34.9% 29% 16% -16.9%
≤30d 145 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 28% -7.1%
≤90d 145 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 28% -7.1%
all 145 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 28% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 28% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 17% -16.0%
15% -30.9% 14% -24.1%
20% -37.6% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,474.06 · official $1,474.06 (match) · 3500 history records