Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa203…7e1a crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+10%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day163.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$17
politics 2% −$2
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 45% -10.8%
≤30d 40 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 40 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 45% -10.8%
all 40 -6.3% -15.3% 55% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 45% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -19.4%
15% -30.8% 20% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day163.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $109 −$35 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $77 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$86 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$45 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$12 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $25 −$2 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$24 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $158 −$37 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$95 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records