Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa203…293e crypto 312 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,349 (-10%) realized −$4,349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate62%192W / 120L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$32
14 days+$22
30 days−$1,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,942
other 3% +$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.1% -13.3% 55% 45% -8.1%
≤30d 141 -2.5% -11.7% 55% 38% -19.4%
≤90d 273 -3.2% -12.5% 59% 37% -22.1%
all 312 -2.1% -11.5% 62% 37% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 37% -19.4%
10% -19.9% 27% -27.1%
15% -27.7% 21% -34.2%
20% -34.8% 15% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$68 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses192 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)312 / 312
History coverage91d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 312 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $372 +$55 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $362 +$49 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $128 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$42 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $402 +$58 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$8 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $203 −$93 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $531 −$26 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $820 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $342 +$170 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $138 −$39 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $520 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $60 −$18 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $426 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $110 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $411 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $362 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 812 history records