Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa204…96f6 crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,255 (-9%) realized −$5,259 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%82W / 184L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,635
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -64.8% -68.2% 20% 19% -84.6%
≤30d 106 -62.4% -66.0% 20% 18% -78.1%
≤90d 239 -46.0% -51.2% 30% 26% -50.9%
all 266 -43.5% -48.9% 31% 28% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.9% 28% -47.9%
10% ← realistic here -53.8% 26% -52.9%
15% -58.3% 20% -57.4%
20% -62.4% 12% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$262 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$5,259
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses82 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 216
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$257
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 33¢ 34¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,415 −$1,415 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $842 −$842 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2,317 −$2,317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $995 −$995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $541 −$541 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2,212 −$2,212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $694 −$694 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 6? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,466 −$1,466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $787 −$787 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $706 −$706 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,326 −$1,326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,305 −$1,305 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $937 −$937 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $644 −$644 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $571 −$571 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,725 −$1,725 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $404 −$404 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 4? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $86 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $60 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $91 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $67 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $23 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $56 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $84 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $91 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $69 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $141 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.22 · official $121.25 · 3500 history records