Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa204…bf99 world 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,149 (+2%) realized +$1,172 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%54W / 126L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$257
14 days+$257
30 days−$2,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$620
finance 11% +$289
other 3% +$748
sports 2% +$687
politics 1% −$239
weather 0% −$55
economics 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.7% +25.5% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 46 -31.3% -37.9% 28% 24% -30.5%
≤90d 180 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 26% -8.9%
all 180 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 26% -8.9%
10% -20.5% 23% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 21% -25.6%
20% -35.2% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$95 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$1,172
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses54 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage76d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 13¢ $76 $49 −$28 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$144 +113%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $1,561 +$384 +25%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$48 +93%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 18 $378 −$291 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $50 −$22 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $74 +$21 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? Jun 01 $237 −$30 -13%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $577 −$77 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Jun 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $232 +$22 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 01 $178 −$178 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $196 −$196 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May Jun 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +77%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 01 $123 −$37 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 01 $148 +$23 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 01 $6 −$3 -50%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $62 −$36 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $712 −$286 -40%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 30 $256 −$79 -31%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $589 −$407 -69%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $321 −$240 -75%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o May 27 $175 +$103 +59%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $90 −$39 -43%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $229 +$184 +80%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,262 +$491 +39%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 23 $660 −$38 -6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 23 $191 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $140 +$155 +110%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $136 −$58 -42%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 22 $333 −$63 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $78 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $10 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Bo BUY $3 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $80 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $10 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $2 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $272 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $127 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $18 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $31 25h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $71 28h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes $4 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $32 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao BUY $1 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Haiti: BUY 10¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.68 · official $153.68 (match) · 1187 history records