Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa209…ffbe sports 1009 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,476 (+17%) realized +$27,476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%780W / 229L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$1,259est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,914
7 days+$19,721
14 days+$28,054
30 days+$28,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$27,156
crypto 0% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +19.2% +7.9% 66% 51% +10.5%
≤30d 465 +11.8% +1.1% 71% 52% +10.7%
≤90d 1009 +3.5% -6.4% 77% 38% +5.8%
all 1009 +3.5% -6.4% 77% 38% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 38% +5.8%
10% -15.3% 23% -4.3%
15% -23.5% 17% -13.5%
20% -31.0% 13% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$132 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses780 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,259
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1009 / 1009
History coverage78d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1009 Trades
no open positions (225 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $501 +$37 +7%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $447 +$35 +8%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $186 +$156 +84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $544 +$148 +27%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$49 +98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $312 +$55 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,516 +$838 +55%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,464 +$1,132 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,105 −$1,082 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $445 +$704 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $39 +$2 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,512 +$548 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $58 +$5 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $246 −$241 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,168 −$1,160 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $193 −$191 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $201 −$199 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $529 +$1,879 +355%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $307 +$339 +110%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $754 +$419 +56%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +72%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $287 +$65 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $420 +$183 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $215 +$576 +267%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $198 +$18 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,442 +$1,635 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,294 +$92 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,715 +$451 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $862 −$844 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $126 −$123 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $93 −$90 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,054 +$816 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,728 +$1,521 +88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,008 +$339 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$7 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$70 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $824 +$53 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1,105 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2,019 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $443 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,516 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $179 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $15 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $172 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $132 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $447 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $44 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $365 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $180 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $501 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $160 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $60 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $70 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $66 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $201 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $39 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $134 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,512 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2233 history records