Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa20b…3583 crypto 1619 markets active 21h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$288 (-4%) realized −$283 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%1296W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$44
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$160
other 14% +$16
sports 2% +$13
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 68% -9.8%
≤30d 770 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 1615 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 30% -11.0%
all 1615 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 30% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 30% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 17% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 12% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1296 / 319
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1615 / 1619
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.94 · official $6.46 (match) · 3500 history records