Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A2 0xa20d…76bc crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$387 (+9%) realized +$390 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%63W / 35L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$109
other 45% −$91
sports 7% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +17.4% +6.2% 64% 59% -2.9%
≤30d 98 +17.4% +6.2% 64% 59% -2.9%
≤90d 98 +17.4% +6.2% 64% 59% -2.9%
all 98 +17.4% +6.2% 64% 59% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 59% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 48% -12.2%
15% -13.2% 34% -20.7%
20% -21.7% 21% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized+$390
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses63 / 35
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)98 / 113
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $33 −$3 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$15 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$20 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $163 −$93 -57%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 −$17 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$4 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $403 +$159 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$88 +477%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $18 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $70 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $30 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $563 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $564.48 · official $564.48 (match) · 253 history records