Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa20d…ea80 other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$42
sports 16% +$43
crypto 9% −$12
economics 8% −$26
tech 7% +$43
world 5% +$3
politics 4% −$12
culture 1% −$1
weather 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -27.0% -33.9% 20% 20% +56.5%
≤90d 7 -47.4% -52.4% 14% 14% +41.8%
all 145 -6.8% -15.7% 15% 14% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 14% -14.9%
10% -23.7% 12% -23.1%
15% -31.1% 12% -30.5%
20% -37.9% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 123
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)145 / 155
History coverage205d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $14 +$37 +265%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$9 -97%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? Apr 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $8 +$26 +309%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 28 $9 +$1 +15%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 09 $1 +$3 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $1 +$13 +1329%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025? Dec 23 $1 +$7 +720%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 15-21? Dec 21 $4 +$2 +61%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 21 $1 +$7 +733%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 10d
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 10d
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 10d
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 64d
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? SELL No 12¢ $1 64d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 131d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 131d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 138d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 87¢ $35 138d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 138d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 138d
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 146d
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 146d
Senegal vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $1 148d
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 148d
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.82 · official $17.82 (match) · 207 history records