Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa211…2ad9 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-10%) realized −$159 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$154
other 23% +$102
sports 7% −$81
politics 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -20.2% -27.8% 49% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 53 -20.2% -27.8% 49% 38% -26.7%
≤90d 53 -20.2% -27.8% 49% 38% -26.7%
all 63 -19.4% -27.1% 49% 40% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 40% -20.1%
10% -34.0% 33% -27.7%
15% -40.4% 32% -34.7%
20% -46.3% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage242d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$18 -35%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$46 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.06 · official $123.06 (match) · 133 history records