Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa213…6907 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,372 (-3%) realized −$540 · open −$832
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 48L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$580est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$911
7 days−$3,031
14 days−$6,623
30 days−$1,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$254
crypto 13% −$1,867
other 10% +$60
world 2% −$770
tech 0% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -13.1% -21.4% 56% 46% -22.9%
≤30d 103 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 103 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 43% -13.6%
all 103 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 43% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 39% -21.8%
15% -33.6% 29% -29.4%
20% -40.1% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$324 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$540
Unrealized−$832
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$580
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage18d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$109 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $457 −$457 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1,678 +$58 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $738 +$6 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,067 +$299 +28%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $26 +$4 +18%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,570 −$515 -33%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $549 +$400 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$1 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $383 −$383 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $303 −$298 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $210 +$190 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$77 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 +$113 +122%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$151 +97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $500 +$12 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $504 +$163 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $401 +$48 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $210 +$90 +43%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $250 +$13 +5%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $606 −$600 -99%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $400 −$393 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $794 +$412 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $765 +$235 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $377 +$623 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $639 +$507 +79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $615 +$384 +62%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $507 +$472 +93%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $995 −$995 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 13 $1,992 −$1,992 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$207 -100%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 13 $815 −$815 -100%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 13 $490 −$490 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $609 +$568 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $69 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $148 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $410 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $184 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $34 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 65¢ $650 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $627 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $635 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $25 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $537 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $668 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $22 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $17 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $530 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Jenson Brooksby 3¢ $30 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 2¢ $0 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 2¢ $7 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 2¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.31 · official $2.31 (match) · 489 history records