Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa214…ceef sports 5 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$191 (+37%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +56.1% +41.2% 80% 80% +23.5%
≤30d 5 +56.1% +41.2% 80% 80% +23.5%
≤90d 5 +56.1% +41.2% 80% 80% +23.5%
all 5 +56.1% +41.2% 80% 80% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.2% 80% +23.5%
10% +27.7% 80% +11.7%
15% +15.4% 80% +0.9%
20% +4.1% 80% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$153 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $155 −$153 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$79 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $72 +$67 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $81 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $72 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records