Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa218…643c sports 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%32W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 22% −$5
politics 21% −$3
economics 8% −$4
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% $0
world 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 222 -0.1% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses32 / 190
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage174d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $34 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $27 $0 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 08 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $74 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $33 $0 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 22 $30 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 20 $149 −$2 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $136 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $66 +$1 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 92¢ $34 2h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $34 7h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $27 7d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $27 7d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 20d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 20d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 32d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 40d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $38 93d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $38 93d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $38 93d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $38 94d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 94d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 94d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $35 94d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $35 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 95d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 95d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $36 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $36 95d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 95d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $37 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $40 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 810 history records