Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa21b…ae83 politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$21
other 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 87 -8.2% -16.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage699d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $49 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese pa Feb 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Justin Jefferson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 40d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 44d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $49 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 49d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 52d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 52d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 74d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 75d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? SELL No 100¢ $50 91d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 92d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $50 100d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 102d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $50 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 106d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 109d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 109d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 112d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $50 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records