Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa220…10e0 crypto 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$163 (-15%) realized −$180 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%59W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$67
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$170
other 29% −$17
sports 6% +$28
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -40.1% -45.8% 27% 27% -25.0%
≤30d 189 -17.6% -25.4% 31% 31% -26.7%
≤90d 189 -17.6% -25.4% 31% 31% -26.7%
all 189 -17.6% -25.4% 31% 31% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 31% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 28% -33.7%
15% -39.1% 24% -40.1%
20% -45.0% 19% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses59 / 130
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$15 +711%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 −$6 -69%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +118%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +137%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 31m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $64 35m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 27h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.19 · official $67.19 (match) · 349 history records