Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A2 0xa221…661f other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$39 (+24%) realized −$3 · open +$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+62.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+79.5%	+62.4%	50%	50%	+97.2%
≤30d	2	+79.5%	+62.4%	50%	50%	+97.2%
≤90d	2	+79.5%	+62.4%	50%	50%	+97.2%
all	2	+79.5%	+62.4%	50%	50%	+97.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+62.4%	50%	+97.2%
10%	+46.9%	50%	+78.4%
15%	+32.7%	50%	+61.1%
20%	+19.7%	50%	+45.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +118% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +80% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$1 · ×28.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×28.57 per $1 lost it wins $28.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage

Net worth$169

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$42

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage40d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	99¢	$58	$100	+$41 (+71%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$69	$70	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 15	$23	+$40	+174%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$70	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$8	5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	93¢	$64	5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$23	36d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	39d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.35 · official $169.60 (match) · 22 history records