Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa222…b6e0 crypto 463 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$782 (+0%) realized +$782 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%441W / 22L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$145
14 days+$307
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 155 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 463 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.3%
all 463 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$763) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$104 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$782
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses441 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)463 / 463
History coverage46d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 463 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $441 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $881 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $879 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $458 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,099 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,094 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $879 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $650 −$95 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $880 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $873 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,098 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $258 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $440 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $1,341 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $1,094 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $551 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,099 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1,317 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $545 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $649 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $549 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $158 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $314 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $166 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $166 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $549 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $550 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $353 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $220 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $550 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $397 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $147 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $813 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $140 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $305 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $550 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $549 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1894 history records