Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa224…8eb7 crypto 1666 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$385 (-2%) realized −$385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%1295W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$85
14 days−$251
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 62% -13.6%
≤30d 1194 -3.0% -12.2% 74% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 1666 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 31% -12.3%
all 1666 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 8% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 3% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1295 / 371
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1666 / 1666
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1666 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$11 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$13 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$13 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$13 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records