Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa225…40bf crypto 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$24 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%155W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$14
other 4% −$9
world 3% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +42.9% +29.3% 83% 83% +27.7%
≤30d 12 +42.9% +29.3% 83% 83% +27.7%
≤90d 112 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 54% -12.7%
all 281 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 51% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 51% -12.5%
10% -21.7% 46% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 40% -28.5%
20% -36.2% 32% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses155 / 126
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage134d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$17 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$15 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$13 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 13 $16 +$13 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $10 +$12 +112%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $19 +$9 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$6 +64%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 5h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 23h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $23 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $19 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 40d
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 40d
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 46d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 46d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 47d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 47d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 47d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 637 history records