Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa225…b903 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22,270 (-16%) realized −$22,262 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%66W / 108L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days+$109
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$7,827
other 38% −$14,828
politics 7% −$2,925
culture 0% +$3,145
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.0% -0.5% 36% 27% -0.2%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 25% -10.6%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 25% -10.6%
all 174 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 32% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 32% -24.8%
10% -22.1% 25% -32.0%
15% -29.6% 18% -38.6%
20% -36.5% 13% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$693) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$392 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$22,262
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses66 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 177
History coverage605d
Avg bet$777
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-20%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $36 −$21 -59%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$68 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $91 −$12 -13%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $96 −$5 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 +$14 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $146 −$65 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$82 +134%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $110 +$273 +249%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $219 −$12 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils Dec 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Dec 16 $10 $0 +5%
Dolphins vs. Steelers Dec 16 $98 +$55 +56%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $29 −$13 -44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $110 −$85 -78%
Will Cesena FC win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $5,007 −$5,007 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? Dec 08 $200 −$183 -91%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 08 $4,500 +$626 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Dec 08 $9,600 −$743 -8%
Penguins vs. Stars Dec 08 $291 +$16 +6%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 08 $5,913 −$467 -8%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 08 $313 $0 -0%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $99 +$38 +39%
Broncos vs. Raiders Dec 07 $5,600 −$3 -0%
Celtics vs. Raptors Dec 07 $8,700 −$3,111 -36%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $49 +$50 +102%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $43 +$6 +15%
Valorant: T1 vs Fnatic (BO5) Dec 07 $34 +$9 +27%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 07 $26 +$8 +32%
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Wyoming Cowboys Dec 06 $46 −$21 -46%
Will Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Dec 06 $229 −$182 -80%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats Dec 06 $188 +$41 +22%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $220 −$41 -18%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $230 −$230 -100%
Troy vs. James Madison Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-05? Dec 05 $500 +$434 +87%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 05 $2,330 −$339 -14%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $1,966 −$719 -37%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 04 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $694 −$176 -25%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $134 +$7 +5%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) Dec 03 $496 −$308 -62%
Will US Lecce win on 2025-11-30? Dec 03 $505 +$83 +16%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 03 $313 +$193 +62%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $346 −$33 -10%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Dec 03 $560 −$40 -7%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 03 $128 +$34 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 15¢ $33 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $79 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $79 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $91 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $91 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $96 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $96 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $82 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $82 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $146 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $383 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $110 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $109 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $116 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $97 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 13d
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Lipscomb Bisons 2¢ $144 194d
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Lipscomb Bisons 2¢ $20 194d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 195d
Dolphins vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 64¢ $98 195d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 195d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.71 · official $34.72 (match) · 700 history records