Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa226…5b97 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$46 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$210
14 days+$136
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$256
world 36% −$110
crypto 3% +$8
politics 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +76.4% +59.6% 21% 19% +20.8%
≤30d 89 +63.0% +47.5% 22% 20% -2.6%
≤90d 91 +62.8% +47.3% 23% 21% +0.3%
all 91 +62.8% +47.3% 23% 21% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.3% 21% +0.3%
10% +33.2% 20% -9.3%
15% +20.4% 20% -18.1%
20% +8.6% 18% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +157% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$8 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 70
Open positions15
Markets (closed)91 / 106
History coverage41d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+33%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-77%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 23¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-75%)
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$43 +826%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 +$33 +398%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 +$64 +470%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$10 -84%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 +$63 +568%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$14 +249%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$11 -70%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$97 +1288%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $60 −$51 -85%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 −$10 -91%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -70%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 +$4 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $11 +$13 +123%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $7 +$44 +635%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$100 +2083%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +119%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$75 +910%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -88%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 16m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 25m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 65¢ $77 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.38 · official $107.53 (match) · 507 history records