Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa227…97a5 other 31 markets active 9h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+18%) realized +$36 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$21
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$15
sports 16% +$9
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 62% +4.4%
≤30d 25 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 64% +5.9%
≤90d 25 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 64% +5.9%
all 25 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 64% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 64% +5.9%
10% -11.3% 60% -4.2%
15% -19.8% 44% -13.5%
20% -27.7% 36% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +180%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $4 +$7 +155%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 11h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 35h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 43h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.55 · official $64.55 (match) · 64 history records