Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa228…99c6 weather 603 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,521 (+6%) realized +$2,517 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%575W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$125
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$804
world 0% −$3
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.8% -28.4% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 332 +5.4% -4.6% 97% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 600 +12.7% +1.9% 96% 1% -8.3%
all 600 +12.7% +1.9% 96% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 1% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 1% -17.1%
15% -16.7% 1% -25.1%
20% -24.9% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.12 per $1 lost it wins $13.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$2,517
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses575 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)600 / 603
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? No 90¢ 95¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 26? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? No 94¢ 94¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $837 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $923 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $406 +$5 +1%
Will Curaçao win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $119 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $244 +$112 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on June Jun 15 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 11 $65 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $63 −$9 -14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $54 −$33 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 11? Jun 10 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 09 $250 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 09 $250 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on June 9? Jun 09 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 09 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 09 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 09 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 10? Jun 08 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on June 10? Jun 08 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or below on June 10? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 10? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on June 10? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $93 26m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $47 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $767 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $118 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $426 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $290 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $93 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $266 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $22 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $272 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $120 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $803 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $837 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.40 · official $261.40 (match) · 3500 history records