Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A2 0xa229…0b73 crypto 515 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,566 (-12%) realized −$4,496 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%93W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 210d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$6,806
other 3% −$269
economics 2% −$479
sports 2% +$208
world 1% −$86
culture 1% −$132
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -58.9%
≤30d 108 -35.9% -42.0% 17% 17% -36.7%
≤90d 179 -41.1% -46.7% 13% 13% -42.5%
all 511 -32.5% -39.0% 18% 17% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 17% -29.0%
10% -44.8% 17% -35.8%
15% -50.1% 16% -42.0%
20% -55.0% 14% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$53 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$4,496
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses93 / 418
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)511 / 515
History coverage210d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $74 $39 −$35 (-47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 349 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $27 +$57 +214%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $110 −$104 -94%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $79 −$9 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $84 +$72 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$89 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $58 −$54 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $115 −$71 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $88 −$82 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $94 −$88 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $47 −$44 -95%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? Jun 14 $61 −$57 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $123 −$116 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $539 +$123 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$6 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 8-14? Jun 12 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $69 −$65 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $185 −$175 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$45 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $63 +$123 +195%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $72 −$68 -94%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $212 +$241 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $74 −$70 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $43 −$24 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $86 −$35 -41%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $24 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $27 −$26 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $187 −$73 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $58 −$54 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $102 −$96 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $98 −$63 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $26 −$24 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 12¢ $26 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $35 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $83 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $27 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $42 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $16 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $12 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 79¢ $157 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $190 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $84 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $107 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 69¢ $357 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.77 · official $77.77 · 1659 history records