Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa22b…0673 crypto 51 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$54
world 11% −$82
other 9% −$30
politics 7% −$7
tech 5% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 33% -13.7%
≤30d 51 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 31% -14.8%
≤90d 51 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 31% -14.8%
all 51 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 31% -14.8%
10% -23.1% 31% -22.9%
15% -30.6% 31% -30.4%
20% -37.4% 29% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $121 −$30 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $47 +$18 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$62 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $67 +$95 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $93 +$9 +9%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 12 $39 −$9 -24%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 12 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$32 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$22 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$13 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$7 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $91 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $70 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 45¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records