Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa22d…a6f6 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+32%) realized +$239 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$135
crypto 24% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 56% +27.2%
≤30d 9 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 56% +27.2%
≤90d 9 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 56% +27.2%
all 9 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 56% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 56% +27.2%
10% -11.3% 44% +15.0%
15% -19.9% 44% +3.9%
20% -27.7% 33% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$9 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.92 per $1 lost it wins $9.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $156 +$71 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $167 +$112 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $108 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $156 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $167 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.01 · official $143.01 (match) · 19 history records