Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa22f…af41 weather 793 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$255 (+3%) realized +$247 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%513W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days+$24
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$283
sports 14% +$520
other 10% +$19
world 8% −$11
finance 3% −$3
politics 3% +$4
crypto 1% +$12
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.1% -14.1% 60% 34% -11.9%
≤30d 105 +4.8% -5.2% 70% 40% +30.2%
≤90d 767 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 42% -6.5%
all 767 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 42% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 42% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 33% -15.4%
15% -26.1% 25% -23.6%
20% -33.3% 18% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses513 / 254
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions26
Markets (closed)767 / 793
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 44¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 84¢ 76¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 90¢ 93¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 76¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 89¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 83¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 83¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $6 −$5 -77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $35 +$5 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$1 +55%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 $0 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $5 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.32 · official $218.39 (match) · 3500 history records