Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa236…7c7e sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized −$10 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$589
14 days+$589
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$608
sports 45% −$136
tech 3% +$4
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +60.5% +45.2% 86% 86% +40.2%
≤30d 7 +60.5% +45.2% 86% 86% +40.2%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 57% +17.7%
all 29 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 48% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 48% +6.1%
10% -16.2% 45% -4.1%
15% -24.3% 34% -13.3%
20% -31.7% 28% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$47 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage177d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 51¢ 64¢ $188 $234 +$46 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $148 +$43 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$190 +191%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$196 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $325 +$353 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$105 +100%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $8 +$2 +28%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5 Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Apr 03 $94 −$94 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 Apr 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 03 $4 +$4 +92%
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? Jan 19 $30 +$2 +5%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $56 +$38 +68%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $216 −$48 -22%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 Jan 11 $52 +$42 +81%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $65 +$42 +64%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 11 $53 +$47 +88%
Spread: Indiana (-3.5) Jan 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 09 $300 +$58 +19%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $50 −$1 -2%
O/U 51.5 Jan 09 $54 +$16 +30%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 08 $100 +$4 +4%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jan 06 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 26 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 18m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $148 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $290 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND SELL 37¢ $147 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 24¢ $100 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 19¢ $54 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $197 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 70¢ $340 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $209 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $325 5d
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 78d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 79d
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 81d
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 153d
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 153d
Texans vs. Patriots SELL Patriots 89¢ $94 153d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 53¢ $56 153d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Bills 16¢ $8 154d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Bills 28¢ $23 154d
Bills vs. Broncos SELL Broncos 62¢ $83 154d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 63¢ $84 154d
Bills vs. Broncos SELL Broncos 42¢ $85 154d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 46¢ $47 154d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 54¢ $54 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.69 · official $233.69 (match) · 77 history records