Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa237…d59a sports 526 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,709 (-4%) realized −$2,711 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%384W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$17
14 days−$108
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,752
other 10% −$326
crypto 5% +$100
world 1% +$31
tech 1% −$14
culture 1% +$115
politics 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 90% 30% -9.8%
≤30d 62 -6.7% -15.6% 84% 23% -11.3%
≤90d 155 -9.4% -18.1% 72% 46% -16.2%
all 524 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 61% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 61% -13.7%
10% -21.2% 36% -22.0%
15% -28.8% 20% -29.5%
20% -35.8% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$100 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$2,711
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses384 / 140
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)524 / 526
History coverage182d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 84¢ $252 $250 −$2 (-1%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $258 +$42 +16%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $316 −$315 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $271 +$29 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $315 +$35 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $380 +$20 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $323 +$27 +8%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $299 +$51 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $273 +$27 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $274 +$26 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $280 +$20 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $271 +$29 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $317 +$23 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $274 +$26 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $256 +$19 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $254 +$18 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $238 +$12 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $226 +$19 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 +$48 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $178 +$17 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $161 +$14 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $147 +$13 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $137 +$13 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $125 +$13 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $115 +$10 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $79 +$21 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $62 −$62 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $55 +$5 +8%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $140 −$140 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $97 +$13 +13%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $109 +$11 +10%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $105 +$5 +5%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $91 +$9 +10%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $124 +$6 +5%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $94 +$6 +6%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $91 +$9 +10%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $89 +$11 +12%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $93 +$7 +8%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $93 +$7 +8%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $46 +$4 +10%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $47 +$3 +6%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $48 +$2 +5%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $42 +$3 +7%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 May 31 $41 +$4 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $41 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $253 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $220 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $32 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $316 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $271 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $236 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $22 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $24 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $23 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $380 35h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $323 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $299 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $273 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $274 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $280 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $271 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $317 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $274 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $256 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $2 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $4 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $4 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $4 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $4 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $4 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $56 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $164 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.34 · official $285.34 (match) · 1289 history records