Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa239…bf85 other 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1
other 31% +$1
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 20 +1.1% -8.5% 65% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54.93 per $1 lost it wins $54.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage457d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $7 $0 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $17 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $17 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $5 30d
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? BUY No 98¢ $1 374d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 388d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $1 410d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? BUY No 93¢ $1 424d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C SELL No 96¢ $12 439d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records